Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
